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It notes that much of this generation will likely be replaced by natural gas, which means more emissions — and even if it was all replaced by renewables, it's still a setback. From Ryan Fitzpatrick, deputy director of the centrist think tank's clean energy program: "The only way we win is if we grow the amount of zero-carbon energy we’re producing. As nuclear plants get shut down, new renewables will have to pay-off that zero-carbon debt before they actually start increasing our totals again." The big picture: "Even if we limit the loss of nuclear generation between now and 2030 to just 20%, that’s a setback of 4.5 years’ worth of clean energy growth," Fitzpatrick writes. The setback is more severe as retirement rates grow. As nuclear plants face heavy market pressure from natural gas and renewables, the number of planned or possible closures keeps rising. Most recently, FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. announced plans in late March to shutter two plants in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania by 2021. A state focus: Fitzpatrick chatted with Axios about the group's views on policies that could ward off retirements.He is hopeful about stronger state-level efforts in areas where retirements loom in the next few years. “It is really going to be incumbent on the states to start working on policy efforts right away, if they have not already,” he said. The group supports expansion of so-called zero-emissions credits programs to more states beyond existing efforts in Illinois and New York.
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